Lumbard & Kellner, LLC


We’ve steered our clients through bubble and bust, by
differentiating between the things that matter and the things that don't.

Lumbard Investment Counseling is a traditional investment advisory firm. located in Hollis, NH.

 Lumbard Investment Counseling maintains an unusually low ratio of clients to investment counselors.

Lumbard Investment Counseling is engaged in the management of equity and fixed income securities on behalf of endowments and foundations.


22 Years of Forecast Archives

 

Below you’ll find hundreds of pages of text; if you’d like a little guidance on which newsletters to read, start with the Autumn 2007 issue, which predicted the great mortgage mess of 2008, and Autumn (“Decline and Fall”) 2008—after it had actually unfolded. Then open the Spring issue of 2020, written during an exceptionally deep but short recession, and Spring of 2022.

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General Disclosure: The contents of these Insight Newsletters are for General Educational Information and Market Commentary only. Our goal is to provide Educational Communications that are limited to providing general information about investing, such as information about types of investment vehicles, asset classes, strategies, certain geographic regions, or commercial sectors. None of the material contained in our Newsletters should be construed as constituting an offer of our investment advisory services with regard to securities or a recommendation as to any specific security. These Newsletters are only opinion commentary. Similarly, materials that provide our general market commentary are not intended to offer advisory services with regard to securities. Our Market Commentary and Opinions rendered are aimed at informing current and prospective investors of market and regulatory developments in the broader financial ecosystem. Nothing in our Newsletters should be construed as a guarantee, warrantee or prediction of future economic or market events, political events, any portfolio results, advisory account returns, or other outcomes.
 

 

 

Autumn 24:
MAGIC METAL
- Bajillion Dollars - Biotech Blooms - Growth - The Next Great Thing - Green Plains - AI - Tilting At Windmills - September Is The Cruelest Month - Inaction

 

 

Spring 24:
MORE
- Too Much - Sell in May? - Honey Badger Don’t Care. - The Magic of Compounding - Sweden - Drugged - Blowhards - Happiness - Strange but True - Profiteering

 

January 24:
BUBBLY
- Antagonistic Intelligence - Iran - Cisco Systems - Cool Nuclear - Health Care - Biotech - Courage

Previous Issues of Lumbard & Kellner Insight Newsletters

2023

Autumn

Fire and Ice - AI - The Global Casino - Reducing poverty. Cleaning up the environment - Japan - China - Russia - Short Sighted - REAL WAGES! - Lithium - The 480 - Consumption

Spring

The Abnormal Yield Curve Under The Influence - From The Fed - Bigger Better Blunders - Invest Now! - Go Global - Lucky - The Post-World-War II Collapse - Free Trade? - America’s budget deficit- Subsidies For The Wealthy

January

Caffeine and Candy - Stagflation - PBR - OCTODECUPLED - Defensive Stocks - Electric Demand - Overpriced - Electric Power Consumption - Bull - Gas - Where have all the workers gone?

2022

Autumn

Patience - Stagflation - PBR - OCTODECUPLED - Defensive Stocks - Electric Demand - Overpriced - Electric Power Consumption - Bull - Gas - Where have all the workers gone?

Spring

HUBRIS - Divisiving - Gas Tax - Farmers - Japan - NOVEMDECUPLED - What’s Ahead - ESG - MDC Holdings - Free gas! - ‘Frayed Not

January

Riding the Tiger - Other Stuff - Novemdecupled - The Kings and Queens of Fiscal Drag - The 5,000 Nights of NAPA - 57 Years - Classical Gas - Central Planning - Circular Logic - Wealthy and Wise

2021

Autumn

The Rising Tide - Octodecupled - EVs Are Coming! - But … Sell EV Stocks - Why do growth stocks lag when interest rates are rising? - Why does it grow? - Wages - Subsidies - Growth - Buy Life Insurance Stocks. Sell Health Insurance Stocks. - Caught in the Net

Spring

Bouncing Back - LNG - Don’t Sell Short - Thanks - Experiences - Methuselah In A Box - Too Popular! - Quindecuple - Express - The City Lives - Vaccines!

January

Bouncing Back - LNG - Don’t Sell Short - Thanks - Experiences - Methuselah In A Box - Too Popular! - Quindecuple - Express - The City Lives - Vaccines!

2020

Autumn

Better Than Anybody Expected - Electrifying - Jay Conway, CFA - Floating Along - Cautious. - toogviroloog - Gratitude - GAOA for Gaia - Indonesia - Tredecupled - Compassion Causes Pain - The Special Deal

Spring

FOMO - Bargains - Big Dividends - Flash Frozen - Sensible Shoes - Changes Ahead - 5G - The Working Poor - Immunity - Craziness! - 'Burbs - The Magic Money Tree - India

January

We See A Thaw - The Wage Gap Is Narrowing - Mind Control - Insult - Trededcupe - The Proletariat

2019

Autumn

Bigger Yields - Twattling - Google - Wages Are Soaring - The Perfect Politician - China - Sell Your Retail Stocks - What’s It Worth? - Wurst - The Goldilocks Economy - Financial Crisis

Summer

Lower Inflation, Faster Growth - 2019 Is The Year Of The Pig! - Investing In Weed - Water-rich - $ $ $ - Uberpricey - Euroskepticism - Taxes - Bipartisanship Blooms!

January

Fact or Fiction? - Mr. Market: Seer, Sadist, Purveyor of Fear and Loathing - Prophets and Profits - Trust - Recap - Venezuela - The Gusher - FEDEX - Hype

What's it Worth? — Panic:

The value of an antique car is set by the highest bidder... — The stock market returns in much of American history have been so good

Investment Growth:

If you save $10,000 in a Roth IRA, and keep all of it in the stock market through every crash and correction, after 45 years you might have $970,000.

2018

Autumn

Factfulness - Innovation And Efficiency - Playing Us For Suckers - YouTube - Booming - “Made” In China - F-35 - China Rising - Farpotshket - Admirable

Summer

Highly Productive - Cash Is Burning Holes In The Pockets Of Investors - K9 Vittles - Keeping Cool - Costly - Artificial Intelligence - Recycling Is In Trouble! - Interest - Stock Roundup - Spending - Clean Air - Dispassion Is Best

January

Let The Good Times Roll - It’s Not Rare At All. - Free. Really! - Automation - Insecurity - Winners - Tax Reform - Duodecupled - You’ve Got Mail! From the KGB. - GEEEE

2017

Autumn

Fairness - Unconditional Love - Jobs! - The New Rocket Men - North Korea - Rise Of The Robots - Invasion Of The Robotic Hedge Fund Manager - The Age Of Retirement - Seriously? - The Future Of Transportation - Tax Credits - $20,000,000,000,000

Summer

The Bubble Of 2018 - Insurance Is The Problem - And Now For The World And National News: - Amazon - China - U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate - Innovation - Mexico - Populism - Bargains - MetLife - The Good Life

January

Animal Spirits - Infrastructure - De-regulation - Share The Wealth - The Green Monster - Out Of Touch - The American Peace - Innumeracy - Serenity - Enron-esque Accounting

2016

Autumn

Oh Happy Day - China Is OK! - Deepwater Wind - Most Entitlement Spending Goes to People Who Are Not Poor - Bubbles - The War On Poverty - Medicaid for the 1% - Overheard At A Café in Oregon - Upward Mobility

 

Summer

It’s A Bunny! - The Gift - Profit Is Not A Dirty Word - Don’t get your knickers in a twist! - Stock Roundup - Working-Class Blues - Boys Without Fathers - Negative Interest Rates? Really? - Island Dreams - Rates Rising - The Future of Energy

 

January

The Goldilocks Economy - Oh Yeah, That’s Painfully Weak - War And Peace - Stock Roundup - Gas-Guzzler Paradise - Insecurity - Cholesterol In The Arteries Of The Nation - The News From Europe

2015

Autumn

A World Of Plenty - Take Courage! - The World Has Not Become A More Dangerous Place! - More Good Years Ahead - Commodity Carnage - Target Date Funds - Target Date Funds - The Bounty Of The Oceans - The Biggest Economic Problem In America - Clean Air!

 

Summer

Easy Money - Water Water Everywhere - Flying High - Eurosclerosis - The Toilet Paper Conspiracy - 25 Years - Don’t Be Evil - Kids's Corner - Buying 'em up - On The Grid - Entitlements - O, Canada - Life Is Good.

 

January

Voracious - Favorites - Populism and the Environment - Creative Destruction - Quadrillion! - The Sun Still Rises In The East - Global Populism, Global Debt - Hindsight / Foresight - Tax Time

2014

Autumn

Infinite Possibilities - CYA - Demographics and Destiny - The Fed Is Your Friend - The Markets Are Not Rigged! - Grandstanding - Finely Tuned - The Price of Affection - Switzerland is stealing our lunch money!

 

Summer

Opportunity - Thoughtful Generosity - Bigotry - Your Children Will Be Wealthy - Truth Is Fairer Than Fiction - More Good News - This Week's Currency Trading Tips - Social Responsibility - Buy In June. Whistle A Happy . . . - Competitive Schools.

 

Energy Insert

Blowing Hot And Cold - Hybrid Vehicles

 

January

Happiness - How ‘Bout Some Good News In Health Care? - An Evolving Point of View . . . - All Is Well - Young In America - Nonsense! - DisAbility - Cooperation, Simplicity, Humility.

2013

Autumn

Motown Blues - Octupled - Fairly Valued - Cost Effective and Impactful - A New Mexico - Red Tape - Big Oil - The Decline Of Men.

 

Summer

Happy Days Are Here Again - Beware of Bonds - Fair Winds - A Salute to El Presidente - The Pundit Wars - Too Big To Jail - The Obama Tax Cuts - Octupled - The Future of Manufacturing.

 

January

Land of the Setting Sun - You Gotta Believe - It Was A Very Good Year - Unstoppable - When More Is Less - The Madness of Crowds.

2012

Autumn

Simplicity Rules - Stocks We Like - The Only Game In Town - Infrastricture - Sep(and a half)tupled - Real Estate Rising - Our Big Fat Greek . . . Congress - Leaders of The Future - Alexander Hamilton’s Two Cents - Continents of Incontinence.

 

Summer

Massively Disruptive Technological Change - Don’t Buy Bonds - Pent-up Demand - Petulance Across The Pond - Facebook: Get ‘Em While They’re Hot! - Omnibus Privacy Notice - How We Pick Stocks - The Fiscal Cliff.

 

January

The Most Prosperous Era In The History of the World - More Good News - The Case For A Bull Market In 2012 - No Drama - The State of European Welfare - Commodities.

2011

Autumn

It's Déjà Vu All Over Again - Life Is A Beach - Jobs, Unleashed - Herman Von Rumpy - Fixing Social Security - Stocks We Like - A Latte, A Muffin, And A Million Dollars - Happy Days - Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

 

Summer

Getting The Economy Back On Track - Why Buy Stocks? - S*XTUPLED! - Supply Rising - The Market Outlook - What the Doctor Prescribes.

 

February

Hair of the Dog - Further Gains in 2011 - The Other Shoe - Value in Asia - S*XTUPLED! - Death and Taxes—and Some Upbeat News! - From the Letters Section of the Wall Street Journal - Incentives Rule! - A New Year’s Resolution of Thanksgiving.

2010

Autumn

How `Bout A Little Optimism? - Medtronic - Good News - More Good News - Magic! - The Rest Of The Story - Breaking News: - Congratulations - 20 Years In Business - A Tale Of Two Cities States - How To Help The Economy (Without Hurting It).

 

Summer

Greece, Democracy, Debt, and Decline - 20 Years In Business - Let’s Make a Deal - Good News! - Integrity - Up From The Ground Come A Bubblin’ Crude - Human Nature.

 

February

Fleeing From The Safety Of Cash - A New Toy For Congress - Ask Singapore - Ill-Gotten Gains - 10/10/10 - Small Is Beautiful - Quintupled (And A Half) - Free At The Scooter Store! - Taking Back The Congress.

2009

Autumn

Bumbling Banks - Rays of Sunshine - The Natural Truth - How To Smell A Rat - Blame the Ratings Agencies - No-Money-Down Subprime Mortgages, Revisited - Land of the Rising . . . .  Debt - Still Falling. Better Performance than Warren Buffett. For Ten Years.

 

Spring

A Stimulus Program That Worked - Inflation, Deflation, and the Magic of Banking - In the last 10 years the S&P 500 declined 38%, from 1286 to 797. Our accounts appreciated more than 90%. - Lord Keynes Was Wrong - The Chance of a Lifetime - Loan Sharks In the Water - A New Bull Market? - The Capitalist Poor - The Fire Next Time - The 17% Solution - Speak Now, or Forever Hold Your Peace - Bureaucracy, Inefficiency, and the Most Expensive Health Care the World Has Ever Known.

 

February

Carpet Bombing With Cash - Looking Back At Recent Issues Of Insight - Buy Corporate Bonds - Quadrupled, Even Now - The Debt Bomb - The Madness Of Madoff - Borrowing And Spending - The Grass Is Not Always Greener... Life on the other side of the fence

2008

Autumn

The Great Mortgage Mess of 2008 - Good News! - Boeing - Gridlock is Best - Pipeline of Plenty - See No Evil, Speak No Evil - Safety - More Good News

 

Summer

The Lessons of History - Forecasting Yesterday’s News - Taking Profits - Muddling Along - Bubbling Crude - It’s Your Money - How To Launch An Economic Recovery - We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Oil

 

Winter

Looking Back -  Bananas -  Wealth and Leverage -  Quadrupled !  - National Referendum -  The 12,000-Year Record

2007

Autumn

Ex Uberance  - Easy Street  - Buy Treasuries -  Sell Junk -  Upside Down -  Predatory Lending  - Back-woods Nuclear Power -  Credit Crunch -  Honesty is the Best Policy

 

Summer

Lipstick on the Pig  - Risky Business -  Another Bubble Deflates -  A Sure-Thing  - 100 to 1 Shot, Hedge Funds -  Jumping from One Hot Mutual Fund to the Next  - Guzzling

 

Winter

Power to the People  - A Cleaner and Safer Future -  PEPCO -  How to Build Wealth, The Oil Glut -  Small is Beautiful  - Realty Check -  Terror is for Pragmatists

2006

Autumn

Buy Bonds  - Health Corner  - Sierra Pacific -  Overbooking -  Quadrupled! -  Hidden Expenses -  Bristol-Myers -  A Glut of Oil -  House Poor

 

Summer

The Bubble Bath  – The Rising Euro  – Ringing Up The Profits –  Booking Profits in Beijing  – Waterworld –  A Fistful of Dollars  – A Stronger World Economy

 

Winter

A Sea of Oil –  Cars of the Future  – Invest Overseas, More Junk—Less Time –  Lose Weight and Quit Smoking! –  Refi Madness  – A Sea of Red Ink –  Gone Phishin’

2005

Autumn

Storm Clouds and Silver Linings  – The 50-50 Principle  – Classical Gas  – Bottoms Up –  The Financial Follies: Finding Fraud –  Vaction Homes, Revisited

 

Summer

Passion  – A House of Cards –  The Perfect Investment  – The Glass is Half Full!  – Sports-Utility Stocks  – The Worst Investment You’ll Ever Make  – Spitzer Stocks

 

Winter

Bulldozers –  The Real Estate Bubble  – OTELCO, Bloat  – Snake Oil  – High on Finance—Crazed with Credit –  Seven Surprises –  You’re Fired!

2004

Autumn

Energized  – The Declining Dollar –  Know Your Tax Bracket –  When to Sell  – The Golden Years –  We Just Want To Pump You Up –  Elder Boomers and more…

 

Summer

Diamonds In The Coal Bin –  The Bubble Bath –  Favorite Stocks –  You’ll Never Go Broke Taking Profits –  Boring Stocks Are Best  – Hope –  and more...

 

Winter

Seven Surprises Of 2004  – What To Buy Now  – The Lowest Tax Rate You’ll See In Your Lifetime –  Power To The Shareholders –  Staying The Curse –  Avoiding The Herd

2003

Autumn

WYSIWYG – Sell High, Buy Low – Going Global – TECO – The New Tax Law: Rethinking Tax-Advantaged Accounts – Externalities – and more…

 

Summer

A Thousand Points Of Darkness – BELLWETHER CISCO – The Hunt For Value – Real Companies – The Great Grab-Bag Giveaway – and more…

 

Winter

Good Economy, Bad Market – Dividends Rule – Overseas Profits – Long-Term Investing – The World’s Biggest Tax Laws – and more…

2002

Autumn

Say Goodnight To The Day Traders –  Rare Books  – Billions –  High Yield  – Money In Your Pocket  – Health Care: A Growth Industry –  and more…

 

Winter

What We Bought On September 17 –  A Farewell To Materialism –  Frightfully Helpfu  – The Dollar –  Pharmaceuticals On Sale –  Strategic Reserves  – What do you do now?

© 2024 Lumbard & Kellner, LLC • PO Box 749,  Hollis, NH 03049 • 603-465-7700 • www.lumbard.com